The SPX declined 10.2 points yesterday to close at 1681.55. TOT daily traders came into the session 300% long and were quickly stopped out. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13478.20 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1222.62 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.02 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 28, 2013) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 25, 2013) The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. The odds are that the recent decline from the highs is over or about over, and the market will challenge those highs sooner rather than later.
Although the first day of October is historically one of the weakest “first days of the month,” it nevertheless has a bullish bias. As was the case yesterday, the directional component of the daily model is bullish, but the risk component is in the unacceptably high range, automatically defaulting the overall model to neutral.
My index indicators are telling an interesting story, implying strength in the early going and selling later on. But I would be surprised if news about the pending shutdown (about which I have no more information or thoughts than the TV talking heads), was not the prime market mover today. My best GUESS is that the shutdown will occur (in about 30 minutes from now), the market will shrug it off in the early going as “expected news” but then as the arguing continues in Washington, the market will get nervous again and give back the morning gains.
I’m going to respect the news-risk and stand aside for TOT daily traders.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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