This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, November 27, 2012.
The SPX declined 2.86 points yesterday to close at 1406.29. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13533.71 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 947.36 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.29 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash – which may be an extended slide – to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.
The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 1406 stop or at the market at 9:40 a.m., whichever comes first. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position. At 10:45 a.m., if the SPX is up on the day, cover the short and move to the sidelines. On the other hand, at 10:45 a.m., if the SPX is down on the day, go an additional 200% short at the market at that time. If you take the second position, use a ¾% protective buy stop on it. If still short as we approach the close, and if the SPX is down on the day, take your profit; otherwise carry the position overnight and into tomorrow (and yes, I know that is contrary to “conventional wisdom”).
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.