This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, November 20, 2012.
A very good day for the home team and the market as the SPX advanced 27.02 points yesterday to close at 1386.89. TOT daily traders, TOT Intermediate Term traders, and all Turov Investment Group clients were long for the session. TOT daily traders and all Turov Investment Group accounts took profits on the close. The TIG-managed Variable Annuity Program (the one that began on October 17, 2011) hit an all time equity high as of yesterday’s close, up over 32% since then, compared to a 13% increase in the SPX since then. A Disclosure Document of the Variable Annuity Program is available at www.DanielTurov.com. By law, all profits in a Variable Annuity are deferred until they are withdrawn, unlike “normal” trading profits which are taxable when earned.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13533.05 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 927.96 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.58 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end later this year or early next), expect another nasty crash – which may be an extended slide – to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model, which had been bearish from November 6 through November 14, gaining 61.77 points as the SPX dropped from 1317.26 to 1355.49, turned bullish Thursday, November 14, and that’s where it remains. We’re up 31.40 points on the long side on the current trade.
Since this service began over 18 years ago, half of all SPX gains have occurred on Tuesday’s (465.59 cumulative points compared to 927.96 total cumulative points). Nevertheless, the daily model is bearish today, and I expect to see profit taking. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1386 stop. If the SPX advances to 1390 before reaching 1386, raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points, and for each subsequent 2 point advance, raise the entry sell stop by an additional 2 points, except that if the SPX reaches 1399, sell short at that limit. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again sometime during the trading session today unless we go short and are subsequently stopped out prior to the close.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.