This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, May 24, 2011.
The SPX declined 15.90 points yesterday to close at 1317.37. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12462.49 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 858.44 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.52 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
On yesterday’s message, I said, “The daily model is also bearish today. However, overnight futures are trading at an almost 1% discount to fair value, and I don’t want to take a new short position into that much of a decline.” And indeed, while the market was solidly lower on the day, the SPX ETF (SPY) closed just where it had opened.
I anticipate the market moving higher in the early going, and then moving nowhere later on (in the absence of unknown news, as always, of course). However, if unexpectedly, the market is soft in the early morning, then the rest of the day looks gruesome.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1318 stop. Once long, use a protective sell stop at SPX 1309.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again between 10:45 and 11:00 a.m. – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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