This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, May 20, 2008.
The SPX advanced 1.28 points yesterday to close at 1426.63. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. Actually, the daily model was quite “on target” yesterday. I had said, “The daily model is modestly bullish today, but risk will be excessively high unless there is a pullback in the morning.” And indeed, the market was up nicely in the morning, but without a morning pullback, the market did not have the underpinnings to continue the advance, and so it sold off in the afternoon.
Over the past 46 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 30 times and underperformed 16 times. That’s a ratio of 1.88 to 1.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10476.85 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 967.70 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.83 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish, although I’m getting a bit frustrated with the signal. However, frustration is an emotion, and emotions are usually costly in the market.
The situation today for the S&P index is exactly the same as yesterday. The SPX daily model is modestly bullish today, but risk will be excessively high unless there is a pullback in the morning. If the SPX and the NDX.X are BOTH down at 10:45 a.m., I’ll have an intraday update within 10 minutes. If my intraday model has shown positive divergence on the decline, I’ll recommend a long position. Even if the market is down, I won’t go long the unless my intraday model has shown positive divergence on the decline. If EITHER the SPX or the NDX.X is up at 10:45 a.m., then there will be no intraday update, and we will continue to stand aside for the balance of the session.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again either at 10:45-10:55 OR in 24 hours – depending on the circumstances just described.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2008 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.