This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, May 17, 2011.
The SPX declined 8.3 points yesterday to close at 1329.47. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1334 and, after a decent early rally, we were then stopped out at a breakeven SPX 1334. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12405.29 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 870.54 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.25 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
The risk component of the daily model is very high today, moving the overall daily model into a protective neutral rating. However, there is an interesting twist to the NASDAQ model. IF the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX.X) is able to advance in the early going, then the odds are high that that advance will continue for the balance of the session. And since the NASDAQ has been considerably weaker than the SPX, if the NDX is able to rally, then the SPX should be able to do so also.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at the market at 10:45 IF AND ONLY IF the NDX is up on the day at 10:45 a.m. (that’s the “open” on a one minute bar chart at 10:46 being higher than 2337.85). If the NDX is not up on the day at 10:45, stand aside for the balance of the session, as we would have no “edge” under those circumstances.
If you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position. If not stopped out, liquidate the position on the close and go overnight flat, unless there is a contradictory intraday email from me to the contrary.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2011 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.