The SPX advanced a minuscule 1.55 point yesterday to close at 2058.69. On yesterday’s message I said “the daily model is neutral today with neither bulls nor bears having the upper hand in a news-neutral environment,” and consequently, TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16694.51 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1599.76 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.44 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.44 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 4, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model has been bearish since the close on May 2, and it remains so.
The daily model is slightly bearish today with the operative word being “slightly”. I would go unleveraged short only if the price were fat. So… TOT daily traders are advised to go an unleveraged 100% short at SPX 2066 limit. Risk 12 to make 12, meaning if you go short, cover the position at a profit at SPX 2054 or at a loss on a stop at SPX 2078.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service. If short just prior to the close, I’ll email again then; otherwise in 24 hours – or, as almost always, sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.