The SPX declined 7.81 points yesterday to close at 2375.31. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17099.75 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1916.38 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.92 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.92 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 3, 2017.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. This signal was wrong for a surprising amount of time, but at the present time, it seems more likely than the more commonly held bullish perspective.
The daily model is bullish today, and in the absence of unknown news, we should see higher prices. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2376 stop. If the SPX declines to 2372 before advancing to 2376, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2394, and for each additional 2 point decline, if it occurs, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
I had some additional thoughts about President Trump’s wiretapping allegations that I wanted to share with you since they may impact the market: Regardless whether they are true or not, it was foolish of him to raise the issue without unequivocal proof – and asking Congress to investigate it implies that he does not have unequivocal proof (since otherwise, why would he ask Congress to investigate?). Why is it foolish? Because he already won the election! Even if his allegations are true, what does he gain? Nothing really. But if his allegations are either false or unprovable, he has committed defamation. According to District of Columbia law, defamation claims have four elements: (1) the defendant made a false and defamatory statement concerning the plaintiff; (2) the defendant published the statement without privilege to a third party; (3) the defendant’s fault in publishing the statement amounted to at least negligence; and (4) either the statement was actionable as a matter of law irrespective of special harm or its publication caused the plaintiff special harm. Interestingly enough, defamation is a civil issue, not a criminal one, and so the impeachment possibility for committing “high crimes and misdemeanors” probably does not apply. But without unequivocal proof, it surely was stupid – and not very presidential.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.