This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday March 4, 2008.
The SPX advanced 0.71 points yesterday to close at 1331.34. TOT daily traders took a big profit on a carryforward short position and a modest loss on an intraday long position yesterday. We are currently flat.
Over past 35 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 22 times and underperformed 13 times, a ratio of 1.7 to 1.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10101.24 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 872.41 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.58 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish. Despite normally favorable seasonality at the beginning of March, expect the balance of the week to exhibit continuing weakness.
The daily model is neutral right now, but I want to see how my intraday model acts during the first 90 minutes of trading today. So stay on the sidelines for the time being, and I will have an intraday update at 11:00 a.m. – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.
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