This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, March 18, 2008.
The SPX declined 11.54 points yesterday to close at 1276.60. TOT daily traders took a small scalping profit intraday on four units and then moved to the sidelines.
Over the past 37 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 23 times and underperformed 14 times. That’s a ratio of 1.64 to 1.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10164.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 817.67 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 12.43 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bullish. I don’t have a strong opinion about how the market will react to news today, but the balance of the week should see the market move higher.
Yesterday I said, “ the odds of the market closing higher at 4:00 p.m. than it is at 9:40 a.m. today is very high,” and that’s how it played out, of course. I’m less sanguine about my ability to predict the market’s direction today. The directional component of the daily model is bullish, but the risk component of the model is in the stratosphere, kicking the overall model into neutral. I will update at 11 a.m.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 8 hours.
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