This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday March 11, 2008.
The SPX declined 20 points yesterday to close at 1273.37. TOT daily traders took a 10 point scalping loss on three units. We are currently flat.
Over the past 36 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 22 times and underperformed 14 times.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9993.96 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 814.44 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 12.27 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bullish. Despite the horrific market action these past few days, the odds are high that the coming week will see a solid rally.
In the 41 years since my first Wall Street job, I’ve seen a lot of ominous crises. They all end the same way – with buyers coming in and squeezing the stuffing out of the shorts. They all also have another characteristic – they turn on a dime.
Over the years, I’ve developed numerous techniques for picking turning points. The biggest moves, I’ve heralded with great accuracy in Barron’s. The smaller moves are much tougher – as the current environment confirms. With a very high probability of being accurate, I make the following two comments: (1) We are nowhere close to the end of this bear market, and (2) We are very close to the end of this leg of it. The springback to higher prices will probably come this week, and despite the 20 point decline yesterday, this week will probably end higher than it began.
The daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% long on the first sign of strength at SPX 1274 stop. If you go long, use a 12 point protective sell stop. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow. I expect upside fireworks either today or tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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