The SPX declined 15.82 points yesterday to close at 1932.23. On yesterday’s email, I said, “The daily model is slightly bearish today, but with overnight futures down about 15 points, I’m disinclined to sell into that much weakness. We will, therefore, stand aside.” Considering that the SPX closed down 15.82 points yesterday, that seems like a pretty good call.
Of the 20 trading days in February, TOT daily trader recommendations were profitable on 11 days, unprofitable on 2 days, and on the sidelines on 7 days.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16455.61 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1473.30 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.17 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +11.17 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 5, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 24, 2016.) After booking 110 points on the short side, as of February 16, the Intermediate Term Model had booked 65 points on the long side and had reversed to short. The Intermediate Term model remains bearish. However, if the market doesn’t continue to move lower over the next few days, that reading is in jeopardy.
The daily model is conflicted today, with bullish and bearish factors tugging at one another. Were it not the first day of the month (FDOM), the model would be bearish, but the FDOM is generally strong – although March FDOM is the weakest of the first five FDOMs of the year. We will stand aside and start the weekend early.
ONE FINAL NOTE: As of the end of February, from year-end 2015, the SPX is down 5.5%, the DJII is down 5.2%, the Nasdaq 100 is down 8.5% and the Russell 2000 is down 9.0%. On the other hand, the REAL MONEY Turov Investment Group Sector Fund Program (which NEVER goes short or uses inverse funds and NEVER uses leverage) is UP 4.42%. Furthermore, the Sector Fund Program GUARANTEES that if you die while you are invested in the Turov Investment Group Sector Fund Program, your beneficiary will receive AT LEAST twice the amount of your investment. For further information, please go to https://danielturov.com/files/pdf/DD%20Sector%20Fund%20Program%202016-01-04.pdf
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.