The SPX declined 13.55 points yesterday to close at 2079.28. TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2090 and took a small loss at SPX 2088.43. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15681.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1620.35 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.68 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.68 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 4, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market is most likely to end in 2015 or 2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending on unknowable economic and political events down the road). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future, at about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January 2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 5, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. Our original bearish call was made at SPX 2120 and at the time, I forecast that the SPX would reach 2070 (down 50 points) before reaching 2170 (up 50 points), and that forecast remains valid. I do see the market moving lower here, but I do NOT see this as the beginning of a new bear market – yet.
On Friday’s Turov on Timing, I forecast that a “break below 2093.23 that level would potentially lead the way to a swift decline to or below 2080.” Well, as only Ronald Reagan could say that word, well, we were a day early. The SPX broke 2093 on Friday, but it took until Monday to reach 2080.
In 2008, a solidly down year, the number of advancing days and the number of declining days, were equal. Even in a bear market the market goes up as often as it goes down; the difference is magnitude. So readers who wonder why the Daily Model can be bullish even when the Intermediate Term Model is bearish, the answer is magnitude.
The Daily Model is bullish today, as expected. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2080 stop. If the SPX declines to 2076 before reaching 2080, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2078, and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position. If and when you have an 8 point profit on the position, raise the protective sell stop to a breakeven. If and when you have a 14 point profit on the position, take the profit.
If still long as we approach the close, I’ll update then.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again prior to Wednesday’s opening – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.