This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, June 9, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) declined 0.95 point yesterday to close at 939.14. TOT daily traders “officially” went 200% short at SPX 938.12 on an SPX 940 stop and covered the short at SPX 935.26. Unofficially, of course, results were not that favorable because the opening futures gap was greater than the cash gap. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11023.84 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 480.21 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 22.96 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that after a solid cyclical advance later this year, the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices next year. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, although after an expected interim decline, a resumption of the recent advance appears likely.
The most probable trend in the market today would be a modestly higher opening, followed by a lower drift as the day progresses. In the absence of substantive news, neither move is likely to be dramatic. I don’t see enough potential to trade either move, and we will stand aside for the session.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours.
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