This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, June 6, 2006.
The SPX declined 22.93 points yesterday to close at 1265.29. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1271 on Thursday and took profits at SPX 1286 Friday – and then the daily model did yesterday what it does best: It kept us out of trouble. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines yesterday and missed all the carnage.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8892.92 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 806.36 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bullish.
Yesterday, the up to down volume on the NYSE was 1 to 10.5. 9 to 1 (or more) volume imbalances – regardless whether they are 9-1 or 1-9 – have bullish implications historically, although no one indicator should ever be taken by itself to make trading decisions.
The Short Term Trading Index (TRIN) was 2.82 yesterday. One would have to go back to November 2004 to find a reading that elevated. Single day readings that high are generally followed by snapbacks.
Not surprisingly, the daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1266 stop or at SPX 1262 limit, whichever comes first. Use a fairly tight 6 point protective sell stop on your position. If the SPX advances 6 points from the purchase level, raise your stop to a break-even. And for each additional 6 point advance, raise your stop by 7 points (that’s not a typo). If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours — or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.