The SPX advanced 9.68 points yesterday to close at 1640.42. The daily model was correctly bullish, but TOT daily traders who went 300% long on Friday’s close at SPX 1630.74 were stopped out with a tiny loss yesterday at SPX 1630.00 as I chose to use a tight stop. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13800.64 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1181.49 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.68 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 6) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). For many months I have said that I expect the 2009-2013 cyclical bull market to end in “Spring 2013” and that is still the case.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated May 16) Intermediate Term Model comment: The “wave” of trading that has brought the market to new highs is unlike any pattern that has appeared during the 21st Century. It is unlike the blowoffs in either 2000 or 2007 or, for that matter, like anything else. To quote Art Cashin on CNBC: “This is a very different kind of market than we’ve ever seen.” I still “believe” that this cyclical bull market will end this Spring, but the evidence to back up that belief is sketchy.
As anticipated, the blue chips (DJII and SPX) outperformed the NASDAQ and Russell indices yesterday, with the NDX not moving into positive territory until 3:45 p.m. However, the ability of the NDX to NOT get hurt in the afternoon bodes very well for today.
The daily model is once again bullish today, and, unlike yesterday, the NASDAQ is likely to lead the way. TOT daily traders (who are “officially” wed to the SPX) are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1641 stop or at SPX 1636 limit, whichever comes first. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again sometime during today’s trading session.
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