The SPX declined 43.85 points yesterday to close at 2057.64. TOT daily traders were safely ensconced on the sidelines (as were all Turov Investment Group managed accounts), and none had a loss on the turbulent session. TOT Intermediate Term traders were 100% short for the session and have all the bragging rights at the tavern tonight.
For the Year 2015 to date, the Dow Jones Industrial Index is down 1.3%. The SPX is down .1%. The Turov Investment Group’s Any Market Program is up 37.2% after deducting all fees. The Turov Investment Group’s Annuity Program is up 31.4% after deducting all fees, and all gains accumulate tax deferred. And the Turov Investment Group’s Sector Program, which never goes short or uses any leverage, is up 22.2% after deducting all fees, and all gains accumulate tax deferred.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15761.04 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1598.71 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.86 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.86 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 15, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market (Yes, it’s still a cyclical bull market!) is most likely to end in 2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending on unknowable economic and political events down the road). While I would not be surprised to see the DJII approach the 20,000 level by the time the bull market ends, I then expect to see a bear market of 35% to 50% magnitude from there. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 30, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. My original bearish call was made at SPX 2120 and at the time, I forecast that the SPX would reach 2070 (down 50 points) before reaching 2170 (up 50 points). Yesterday’s decline to just below 2058 represents 72 points gained since the recommendation, and I think we’re getting pretty close to a rubber band bounce worth trading – but not quite yet.
The end of month period is rarely as weak as it has been this month, with the last four days of the month prior to the last day of the month (today), all being down. In fact, since I started keeping records of such things in October 2002, it has occurred only twice before – at the end of February 2007 and the end of July 2011. The results for the last day of the month in those two cases are not statistically significant. So no help there. Unrelated to that, but consistent with that, the news-neutral Daily Model is neutral today, and we will continue to stand aside.
My best guess – and that’s what it is, a guess – is that the market will start off sloppy, then rally, and then sell off again. But I don’t trade guesses.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of tomorrow’s trading session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.