The SPX advanced 12.03 points Friday to close at 2083.25. “Officially,” TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session, although, as described in detail yesterday, we were actually bullish on the day.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16698.63 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1624.32 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.28 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.28 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 21, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. On Monday’s email, I said, “Today will probably see the market at the high for the week.” A high of 2100.66 was reached on Monday, and my prior comment stands.
The daily model is bearish today, although we may some strength in the early going. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2082 stop. If the SPX advances to 2086 before declining to 2082 (as I expect it will), raise the entry sell stop to SPX 2084. And for each additional 2 points (if that occurs), raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points. If and when you go short, use a 1% protective buy stop.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again later during today’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.