This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, June 2, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 23.73 points yesterday to close at 942.87.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11020.40 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 483.94 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 22.77 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that after a solid cyclical advance later this year, the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices next year. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, although after an expected interim decline, a resumption of the recent advance appears likely.
The market is likely to sell off for at least part of the day. If it sells off during the first 60-90 minutes, then I really don’t have a clue as to what it will do for the balance of the day. But if it advances during the first 60-90 minutes, then a mid to late day sell off is a very good probability. If the market is clearly down at 10:45, then continue to stand aside, and we’ll observe just how strong the selling is. But if the market is up (or mixed) at 10:45, then I’ll update by 10:50 with a short sale recommendation.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.
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