The S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 2.71 points yesterday to close at 1200.82, almost identically reversing Friday’s loss. TOT daily traders went an unleveraged 100% short at SPX 1196.50 and have held the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8575.73 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 741.89 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain bearish. However, it’s starting to look more and more as if the market doesn’t want to decline, and the longer it fails to do so, the greater the odds of these models – and the market – moving higher. But for the time being, put that in the category of an “observation”, not a “forecast”.
That the market was able to hold up as well as it did after once again bumping up against multi-time resistance, especially in the face of higher oil prices, is impressive. It should try one more time today to get through that resistance, and its success or failure today may well be a clue for the next intermediate move.
Consistent with that comment, the daily model is bullish today. Of course, TOT daily traders come into today’s session 100% short. Cover that short AND go 400% long at SPX 1202 stop or at SPX 1196 limit, whichever comes first. If you go long, use a 10 point protective sell stop. If not stopped out, and if the SPX is closing up on the day, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow. If the SPX is closing down on the day, close out your long position and go overnight flat. (In the very unlikely case that the SPX trades within the 1196.01 to 1201.99 range and therefore no trade occurs, then carry today’s carryover short position overnight again.)
One final comment. “If a cure for AIDS were announced on Wednesday, how would it impact the stock market?” I’ll discuss this with you on Friday.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2005 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.