This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, June 13, 2006.
The SPX declined 15.9 points yesterday to close at 1236.40. The daily model correctly called for the day to be bearish, but in anticipation of a reversal today, I recommended going long into weakness. TILT! Not a good move as we got scalped for 8½ points on two units.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8857.92 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 777.47 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bullish.
For the second time in a week, the ratio of declining to advancing NYSE volume was at or near 9-1. That, combined with other oversold readings, is bullish – subscribers’ probable emotions notwithstanding. However, the risk component of the daily model is sky high, indicating that while the probability is that the market will advance today, there is a risk of a meltdown – and that’s a risk I don’t want to take. We will stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.