The SPX declined 7.79 points yesterday to close at 1977.65. Since the SPX was down at 10:45 a.m., TOT daily traders went 200% short at that time at SPX
1980.67 and have held the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 14028.63 cumulative SPX points, compared
to a gain of 1518.72 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.24 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model
fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of 9.24 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline. In an
advancing market it will therefore almost always decline, and in a declining market it will almost always advance.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since
January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the
primary bear market is over, some years in the future (best guess: 2017 or 2018), at or below about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January
2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 23, 2014.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. Even as the market makes nominal new highs, serious
internal market divergences lend evidence to the probability that the bulls will soon be steers (although goring some ranchers in protest in the interim).
The daily model is “murky” for lack of a better word. We have a data pattern that has occurred only twice this century, and hence, I am reluctant to put
much credence into it. My intuition is that the market will rebound somewhat after yesterday’s decline failed to snowball.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short from SPX 1980.67. In the absence of overnight news, I would not be surprised to see the market
decline prior to a possible (only intuition, not a model call) advance. TOT daily traders are advised to use a very tight stop at SPX 1978. If the SPX
declines to 1974 before advancing to 1978, lower the stop to SPX 1976, and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points.
At this point in time, I don’t want to recommend going long, but that could change. Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again
later in today’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2014 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and
advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be
reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be
directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but
rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and
may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at
a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern.
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