The SPX declined 2.63 point yesterday to close at 2469.91. TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2470. Our sell stop was also at 2470 (subsequent to an SPX rise to 2473), but as of 3:59 and 59 seconds, the SPX was still above 2370. In other words, nobody could have known that the SPX would be closing below our stop. Therefore, as we have done in the past when similar situations occurred, we are not treating it as a stop-out and are considering it as a held-overnight position.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17331.20 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2010.98 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.62 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.62 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.) Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now. I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.
For reasons explained in the first paragraph of today’s report, TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long from SPX 2470. For the time being, use a protective sell stop on the position at SPX 2460. The daily model is bullish today. The Index models are slightly bearish for the early going, and they point higher later in the day.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.