The SPX advanced 3.44 points yesterday to close at 1695.53. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13510.54 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1236.60 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.93 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 28) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 23) Intermediate Term Model comment: I expect the market to be quite volatile for the next week or two with the SPX returning to the mid-1600’s before maintaining new highs above 1700.
I’ve spoken often about how the current bull market is quite different from past bull markets. Consider the following:
From mid-2002 to mid-2013, there have been 562 weeks. Of these, there are four possibilities for a Friday-Monday combination: both up, both down, Friday up and Monday down, and Friday down and Monday up. Randomly, one would expect to see ¼ of each possibility occurring, or 140.5 each. Eliminating clear-cut bear market periods, there have been 101 times when both were up, about random when considering the bear market eliminations. Of these 101, 44 have seen the following Tuesday advance and 57 have seen the following Tuesday decline. And the net LOSS of SPX points on that Tuesday has been a whopping 149.25, even though Tuesday has been far and away the best performing day of the week this decade AND the bear market periods have been eliminated. However, take a look at the year-by-year SPX pattern, ignoring partial year 2002 which was slightly down:
2013 to 6/21
Amazingly enough, the past two years has seen the Tuesday after a Friday-Monday up-up very strong, despite a long history of down Tuesdays following a Friday-Monday up-up. Why? So far, I don’t know (but I’m still studying and thinking). But it is consistent with a market that has been VERY unusual in many ways.
The daily model is neutral today for the SPX (although tech stocks, which are not highly represented in the SPX) look pretty good. Stand aside, at least for the time being.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of Wednesday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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