The SPX advanced 7.26 points yesterday to close at 2137.16. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the day because of the high risk of market surprises and an expectation that the market was getting tired.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16764.35 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1678.23 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.99 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.99 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated yesterday.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. While our most recent bearish call was clearly premature, primarily as a result of the extremely favorable jobs report, and while I do not expect a complete reversal of the market’s gain since this signal was generated, I do expect a partial reversal of the advance, leading to a buy signal from a lower price than the current price.
I see the market’s having reached an all-time high as being unimportant. Keep in mind that markets never look better than on the day they reach all-time highs, and they never look worse than on the day the reach a new bottom. In fact, my article, Buy Signal appeared in Barron’s on the very day the 1973-1974 bear market hit bottom and ended.
The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 2136 stop. If the SPX advances to 2140 before declining to 2136, raise the entry sell stop to SPX 2138, and for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points. If and when you go short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.