The SPX advanced 2.39 points Friday to close at 2369.73. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17032.45 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1910.80 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.91 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.91 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 3, 2017.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. This signal was wrong for a surprising amount of time, but at the present time, it seems more likely than the more commonly held bullish perspective.
My political views coincide with my statistical conclusions today:
Political: I expect some softness today as the market fears what our unpredictable president might say tonight. However, I expect his speech to be very accommodating to his need for Congressional support, and I expect to see the market hit new highs on Wednesday
Statistical: The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily trader are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2369 stop, 2365 limit. That means that if (a) the SPX opens between 2369 and 2365, we are short on the opening; (b) the SPX opens below 2365, our recommendation becomes an order to sell short at 2365 if the SPX subsequently rises to 2365 but if it does not, the order is not executed; or (c) the SPX opens above 2369, we are short at 2369 if and only if it subsequently declines to 2369. PLEASE SAVE THIS EMAIL FOR FUTURE USE AS A GUIDELINE FOR “SELL SHORT STOP LIMIT ORDERS”.
If and when you go short, use a buy stop 15 points above the shorted level. If still short as we approach the close, cover the short at the market. Furthermore, go 200% long at the market on the close and carry the long position overnight and into Wednesday.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.