This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, December 19, 2006.
The SPX declined 1.6 points Friday to close at 1422.48. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1426 on Friday and have held the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8832.28 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 963.55 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.17 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain neutral.
NASDAQ looks really bad for the very short term, and although the Dow Industrials held up very well and the SPX moderately well in the face of a sharp NASDAQ decline, NASDAQ looks like it has more to the downside, and that can’t be good for the SPX. On top of that, the risk component of the daily model is extremely high. My best educated guess is that the market will open soft today, move lower yet, and then improve late in the day. Whether it recovers all of the anticipated early weakness is anybody’s guess. With the daily model neutral because of the high risk, I want to move to the sidelines at the market on the opening and await a better trading opportunity.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours.
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