The SPX declined 2.57 points yesterday to close at 2256.96. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. On yesterday’s message I said, “I expect the SPX will decline by an amount too small to justify the risk of a short position,” and that was pretty much on the mark.
The odds are strong that the market will mark time between now and Christmas, two weeks from now. The momentum has been extremely strong, but even during times of powerful momentum, pauses occur.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16918.63 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1798.03 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.41 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.41 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated December 12, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish, although that forecast has clearly been wrong recently. However, the odds favor the market being modestly lower than it currently is as we approach Christmas. Whether the market can stage a continuation of the rally from Christmas through New Year’s, is unclear at present.
As was the case yesterday, I expect the SPX will decline by an amount too small to justify the risk of a short position. We will stand aside again.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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