The SPX declined 9.7 points yesterday to close at 2080.41. TOT daily traders were officially on the sidelines, but unofficially, I had said, “If your transaction costs are low, a small short position is probably justified.”
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15795.23 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1621.48 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.74 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.74 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 5, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 30, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. However, while the most probable direction is up, in a news-neutral environment, I don’t expect fireworks in the foreseeable future.
Although the first day of December is one of the least bullish first-days of the year, the SPX-based Daily Model is extremely bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% long at SPX 2081 stop. If the SPX declines to 2078 before advancing to 2081, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2080 and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
(Our sister publication, Turov on Overnight Possibilities, which is not SPX-limited, said yesterday afternoon, “The best full day probability (for Tuesday) is to buy the QQQ for overnight and then switch to the IWM sometime within an hour of the opening.”
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.