The SPX declined 1.98 points yesterday to close at 2180.89. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. I know that subscribers would like some excitement in my recommendations, but the reality is that the market is simply responding to news when it occurs (such as this past Friday) and it has very little internal direction. It’s a little like I felt as a 10 year old watching my first live professional baseball game while the Dodgers pitcher threw a no-hitter. My grandfather, an enthusiastic Dodgers fan, was ecstatic, but I was bored; there was no action, and action is what I wanted. I’d like the market to give off exciting signals, but it simply isn’t happening – although this afternoon might see a little.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16768.99 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1721.96 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.74 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.74 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated yesterday.) Our most recent bearish call was clearly premature, and I do not expect a complete reversal of the market’s gain since this signal was generated; however we have seen at least a pause in the advance. The jobs report was clearly the catalyst for Friday’s advance. Being news related, it tells us nothing about the underlying strength, of lack thereof, of the market. The market is apparently rising because there are limited alternative choices for capital, especially foreign capital. My confidence in the market’s potential ability to sell off is waning, but the market is absurdly overpriced. Nevertheless, its momentum is impressive, and if it doesn’t crack soon, then it might not crack at all. While the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, the Model could reverse if the market doesn’t have a real “crack” soon.
The daily model is slightly (with emphasis on “slightly”) bullish today, but I see no substantial potential for going long in the early going; we will stand aside for the time being. However, the SPX is likely to come awake a bit after mid-morning, and TOT daily traders are advised to go an unleveraged 100% long at the market at 10:45 a.m. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.