This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, August 8, 2006.
The SPX declined 3.59 points yesterday to close at 1275.77. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1286 on Friday and took profits at 1275.77 yesterday.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8971.04 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 816.84 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.98 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Somewhat unnervingly, both the long and short term models have upticked from bearish to neutral. Repeating, both the long and short term models are now neutral.
The daily model is bullish today, but with the Fed announcement coming out this afternoon, it may matter less than it otherwise would. Just as the strongest man in the world can’t overpower an oncoming freight train, the importance of the Fed decision and accompanying statement will overshadow everything else. However, I am going to take a position based on the daily model’s call anyway, but I will update at 2:05 with my recommendation as to whether to hold that position through the Fed decision or whether I think TOT daily traders should go to cash at that time. It will depend on a combination of my “market sense” plus what (if anything) my intraday model is saying, assuming we are still in the position at the time.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 1277 stop or at SPX 1272 limit, whichever comes first. These are the same numbers we used yesterday as potential close out prices prior to covering our short position on the close (as neither price was reached). If you go long at either level, use a sell stop at SPX 1268. If not stopped out prior to 2:05 p.m., Eastern time, I will have an intraday update then. If we have been stopped out prior to 2:05 p.m., there will be no update.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again at either 2:05 or six hours before the start of tomorrow’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.