A profitable day for the home team as the SPX advanced 1.19 points yesterday to close at 2444.24. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 2446 and took profits on the close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17487.64 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1985.31 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.81 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.81 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017 with the SPX at 2470.30.) Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now. I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this medium term bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.
The North Korean Japan fly-over has caused overnight futures to decline .5% to .8%. Where the market will trade during the day session is “anybody’s guess” and will likely be a function of responses from Trump and Abe and the UN. Back during the Cold War, if the Soviets had fired a missile over the Aleutian Islands that then landed in the Pacific Ocean, a military American response would have been difficult for President Eisenhower. How President Trump responds to the equivalent fly-over from a less formidable enemy is still problematic, albeit somewhat less so. How the markets react is going to depend on the denouement of the fly-over. We are in cash now and will remain there.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours –or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.