This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, August 23, 2011.
The SPX advanced 0.29 point yesterday to close at 1123.82. TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 1135 and have carried the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12586.54 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 664.89 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 18.93 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, it is quite possible that it has already ended, the major doubt factor being the upcoming presidential election), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
By the time the market opens Tuesday morning, we should have a better idea of how much of the Libyan rebels’ claims are true and how much are false. Most of Monday’s big rally was a function of European market strength, which in turn was largely a function of a belief that the rebels had overthrown the Khadafy regime. If morning shows that they have, then a repeat rally based on the same information is unlikely. And if morning shows that they have not (and the latest news is that their claims to have two of Khadafy’s sons in custody are false), then the European markets could give back yesterday’s gains, with probable negative consequences for the US market.
Gold’s advance to over $1900 an ounce also augurs poorly for the stock market, as it shows more clearly than anything else could that sentiment is still extremely nervous. Furthermore, the orderliness of gold’s advance does not strike me as panic buying, although we’re in uncharted territory.
The daily model is bearish today, BUT if the NASDAQ 100 is able to advance from Monday’s close through 10:45 a.m. today, its signal gets murky, and I would not want to stay short.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short from SPX 1135. Lower your stop to a breakeven. At 10:45, if the NASDAQ 100 is up on the day and you have not previously been stopped out, take your profit in the SPX position. At 10:45, if the NASDAQ 100 is down on the day AND the SPX is below 1125, lower your stop to 10 points above the 10:45 price.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant (including, for sure, if we still have a position as we approach the close).
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2011 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.