After gaining 73.18 cumulative points last week, TOT daily traders had a loss of 25.48 cumulative points yesterday as the SPX advanced 10.9 points Monday to close at 2102.44 while we were 200% short. We have carried that position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15820.98 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1643.51 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.63 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.63 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 15, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market (Yes, it’s still a cyclical bull market!) is most likely to end in 2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending on unknowable economic and political events down the road). While I would not be surprised to see the DJII approach the 20,000 level by the time the bull market ends, I then expect to see a bear market of 35% to 50% magnitude from there. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 10, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. While it is quite possible that the market is topping, I don’t see evidence that it has rolled over to the other side of the hill yet.
The Daily Model is bearish today. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short with our 1% stop at SPX 2110.60. If not stopped out, I’ll update late in the session; otherwise in about 12 hours..
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again as per the prior paragraph.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.