The SPX declined 3.88 points yesterday to close at 2358.84. TOT daily traders went 300% long on the opening and were stopped out with a 15 point per unit loss. I can’t tell you how angry I am at myself for recommending a 15 point stop rather than the typical 1% stop that would have substantially mitigated the damage. Aaagh! (But as I used to tell my young sons, years ago, when they agonized over a mistake, “What happened yesterday is as much history as the Peloponnesian War.” Today is a new day.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17126.07 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1899.91 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.01 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.01 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 24, 2017.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. This does not mean the bull market is without risk. It does mean that the odds favor the next 50 point move in the SPX is more likely to be up to about 2400 than down to 2300.
The daily model is bullish today, but the Index Models indicate that most of the anticipated gains will come early on. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2360 stop or SPX 2356 limit or at the market at 9:45, whichever of those 3 events comes first. Once long, initially use a 1% protective sell stop on the position. If still long at 10:45, and if the SPX is more than 5 points away from the stop, raise the stop to 5 points below the 10:45 price.
If still long as we near the close, I’ll have a late session intraday update. If not still long, I’ll update in 24 hours. Thanks for the opportunity to be of service.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.