The SPX declined 5.07 points yesterday to close at 1135.53. The good news is that the daily model was correct in predicting a down day. The bad news is that TOT daily traders came into the session 400% short and were stopped out at SPX 1143 before the market reversed to the downside. As I previously stated, the May monthly Turov on Timing newsletter will explain why I hate stops so much and what can – and cannot – be done about the problems they cause.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8310.14 cumulative SPX points compared to a gain of 676.60 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bearish.
The directional component of the daily model is bearish today, but the risk component of the model is extremely high, moving the overall model into a neutral mode. Please note that this is unrelated to yesterday’s stop-out. But because of the neutral reading and the fact that we currently have no official position, we will stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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