This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, April 24, 2012.
The SPX declined 11.59 points yesterday to close at 1366.94. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13238.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 908.01 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.58 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it will end in late 2012 or early 2013), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model has upticked from bearish to bullish. Repeating, the Intermediate Term Model is now bullish.
On yesterday’s message I said, “the daily model is modestly bearish today. However, without more negative news, any decline should be quite modest – and not worth trading.” And indeed, the SPY opened at 136.54, and that was close to the low of the day. It closed higher than that, at SPY 136.79.
I also said, “if the market does sell off enough to scare people, the rest of the week will likely be strong, with a possibility of seeing the SPX approach 1400 again.”
The daily model is modestly bullish today, although my NASDAQ model is quite strong. All managed accounts that permit trading the NASDAQ are 2X long as of last night’s close. As far as the SPX goes, it is as minimally bullish as possible, although I would be surprised if the NASDAQ were really strong and didn’t pull the SPX up with it. In any event, this is an SPX-based service, and that model is only marginally attractive – so we’re going to take a marginal position. TOT daily traders are advised to take an unleveraged position by going 100% long at the market on the opening. With such a small position, I’m going to recommend holding it without a stop.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update again sometime during the trading session today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.