This is Turov on Timing for Tuesday, April 19, 2011.
The SPX declined 14.54 points yesterday to close at 1305.14. TOT daily traders went 300% short on the opening and covered the short at SPX 1306.55.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12411.10 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 846.21 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.67 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.
Overnight futures are down about ½% as I write this. The SPX based daily model is neutral today (it even has a slight bullish bias) but the NASDAQ model is clearly bearish. My “best guess” is that the NASDAQ model will “win” the day’s battle, but with futures (both SPX and NASDAQ) already down, I’m hesitant to go short into what could be a “V” bottom. I don’t think it will be – I think we’re just going to go lower – but I’m reluctant to take much risk with divided models and already weak futures. So stand aside for the nonce, and if something attractive lurks, I’ll email you again intraday. Otherwise, the next message will be in 24 hours.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2011 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.