This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, September 7, 2006.
On yesterday’s hotline I said, “the risk component of the model has risen uncomfortably close to an excessive reading,” and that was certainly descriptive of Wednesday’s market, as the SPX declined 12.99 points yesterday to close at 1300.26. TOT daily traders went 400% long at SPX 1305 last Thursday and took profits shortly after yesterday’s opening, thereby missing most of the day’s carnage.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8951.68 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 841.33 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.64 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long term model remains neutral. However, the short term model has downticked from neutral to bearish. REPEATING, the short term model is now bearish.
Yesterday, I said, “there is no possibility whatsoever of the daily model being bullish (on Thursday).” Indeed, the daily model is bearish today, as significant damage was done yesterday. Because the SPX closed right at the 1300 level, a snapback higher is possible in the early going, but that would just make the shorting more attractive. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1304 limit or at SPX 1298 stop, whichever comes first. As there is no possibility of the daily model being bullish tomorrow, if and when you go short, hold the position without a stop. However, if the trades goes solidly against us and there is no negative divergence on my intraday model, then I will update intraday.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.