This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, September 3, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) declined 3.29 points yesterday to close at 994.75. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 995 and have carried the position, essentially currently at a break-even, overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11101.71 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 535.82 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 20.72 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices in 2010 or 2011. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.
The daily model is neutral today. However, the NASDAQ model is interesting. If the NASDAQ 100 Index ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^NDX ) is up on the day at 10:45, then the odds are about 65:35 that the NDX will advance further into the close. Those are good odds, and chances are, the SPX will follow suit.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long from SPX 995. Use a protective sell stop at SPX 990 on 1 unit, 985 on the second unit, and 980 on the third through 10:45 a.m. At 10:45 a.m., if the NDX.X is down, close out the position at the market and move to the sidelines; do not, however, go short. On the other hand, if at 10:45 a.m. the NDX.X is up, then re-establish the 300% long SPX position if any of the current position had been stopped out, and change your stop on the entire position to SPX 985. If still long as we approach the close, and if the SPX is at or above 1000, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow; if the SPX is below 1000, close out the position and go overnight flat.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2009 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.