First, a correction of yesterday’s TOT: I said the SPX closed Tuesday at 2488.11. That actually was Monday’s closing level. The SPX closed Tuesday at 2496.48. All calculated numbers were, however, correct.
The SPX advanced 1.89 points yesterday to close at 2498.37. TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2491.94 on Tuesday, carried the position overnight and into yesterday, and then sold the position on yesterday’s close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17495.15 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2039.44 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.58 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.58 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 13, 2017) The Intermediate Term model has remains neutral. I expect the market to have a severe selloff sometime relatively soon – but not yet.
The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 2498 stop. If the SPX advances to 2502 before reaching 2498, raise the entry sell stop to 2500, and for each additional 2 point advance, raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.
The daily model for Friday will be a continuation of today’s direction. So, if the SPX is down today, as expected, hold the short position overnight and into Friday. On the other hand, if the SPX is up today, cover the short on the close.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in about 30 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.