This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, September 14, 2006.
The SPX advanced 4.96 points yesterday to close at 1318.07. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8936.68 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 859.14 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.40 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bearish.
On yesterday’s hotline I said, “My intuitive sense is that we will move a bit higher before selling off,” and that’s what happened yesterday. However…
1. The XMI, the Major Market Index, advanced less than a point, and this stand-in for the type of stocks that used to make up the Dow Industrials is noticeable for its underperformance.
2. Despite the SPX being a stone’s throw away from a yearly high, along with more than 2:1 advancing stocks yesterday, there were only 121 new 52-week highs on the NYSE.
3. One of the daily model’s component indicators – one that’s not terribly precise on exact timing, but one that is quite accurate on future direction – has just generated the strongest negative signal since late 1999.
On the other hand…
1. Upside momentum is impressive.
2. NASDAQ is clearly leading the market, and that is bullish.
3. The long Treasury bond has resumed its advance as interest rates decline, and that is bullish.
All in all, a very interesting picture, but not a very clear picture. Continue to stand aside and await a better risk/reward entry point.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.