A very good day for the home team as the SPX declined 27.37 points yesterday to close at 1942.04. TOT daily traders went 300% short near the high of the day at SPX 1986 and have carried the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15959.49 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1483.11 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.76 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.76 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 24, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The cyclical bull market that began a few years ago may have ended last Friday, but that’s unclear at present. For a long time, I have written that I expect “to see a bear market of 35% to 50% magnitude” but I do not have enough evidence to say that this is the beginning of a decline of that magnitude. Regardless, I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 8, 2015.) The market is likely to have a big rally – after it tests its lows. The Intermediate Term model remains bearish.
The directional component of the Daily Model is bearish today, but the risk component is just barely shy of the excessive level which would have pushed the overall model into a neutral default reading. So we are short – but not with the degree of confidence I had yesterday.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short. Lower the stop to SPX 1969. Furthermore, if not stopped out and if the SPX is above 1942 at 10:45 a.m., take your profit at that time and move to the sidelines. If still short as we approach the close, carry the position overnight and into Friday.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.