The SPX declined 5.17 points yesterday to close at 2170.95. TOT daily traders came into the session 200% short and took profits on the close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16849.17 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1717.19 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.81 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.81 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated today.) Our most recent bearish call was clearly premature, and I do not expect a complete reversal of the market’s gain since this signal was generated; however a decline down to about SPX 2110 would not surprise me. That is not a goal or an objective, but rather a reasonable reevaluation point.
TOT daily traders came into today’s session 200% short and took profits on the close.
Most of the time, the first day of the new month is bullish EXCEPT when four (proprietarily discovered) events occur simultaneously. And that is the case for today. The odds are about even that the stock market will be up or down today, but the potential MAGNITUDE of a decline is greater than the potential MAGNITUDE of an advance. On the other hand, I am reluctant to be short on the first day of the month. As a “black box,” the data would have us going short, but I am not a black box, and the risk of being wrong on the short side on the first day of the month creates a “gray” situation. We will stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.