This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, October 4, 2007.
The SPX declined 7.04 points yesterday to close at 1539.59. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
TOT daily traders outperformed the SPX in 10 of the last quarter’s 13 weeks and are well ahead so far this week.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9883.44 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1080.66 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.15 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years. I view the 2002-2007 cyclical bull market as a partial retracement of the 2000-2002 decline (especially as regards NASDAQ, but also, inflation adjusted, as regards the SPX and the DJII). I further believe the cyclical bull market that may have ended in July or is likely to top out soon will end up being to the 2000-2015? bear market as the 1967-1968 cyclical bull market was to the 1966-1974 secular bear market, except that this time around, since the cyclical bull has been longer, I expect the secular bear will be longer also.
The intermediate term model remains bullish.
The daily model is neutral again today with neither bulls nor bears having a clear upper hand. Continue to stand aside for the time being.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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