The SPX declined 1.13 point yesterday to close at 1693.87 after having been lower most of the session. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session and missed… well, nothing. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13478.20 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1234.94 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.91 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 28, 2013) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 25, 2013) The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. The odds are that the recent decline from the highs is over or about over, and the market will challenge those highs sooner rather than later.
All of you know what a verbal metaphor is. And those of you who watch Jay Leno know what a video metaphor is. But now let me offer you a mathematical metaphor: While the daily model’s math is considerably more complex than this, let me metaphor it in algebraic terms. For example, assume that one part of the formula involves dividing by the quantity (a+b+c-x-y-z), and assume that each of those variables can be determined by other formulas. Now IF (a+b+c-x-y-z) equals anything except zero, we’ll arrive at a meaningful number. But if, by chance, (a+b+c-x-y-z) equals zero, then without having planned to do so, we’re doing something impossible; i.e., dividing by zero. Well, metaphorically, that’s about what has happened – and I think it’s only the second time it’s happened in the over 5,000 times I’ve calculated the daily model. In conclusion (!), without being able to calculate the daily model, I really have no statistical advantage over dart throwing in forecasting the market today. So, reluctantly, since my experience tells me that the market is likely to have a big move today, although without the daily model I don’t know in which direction, we will stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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