The SPX declined 11.98 points yesterday to close at 2557.15. TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2576 on Monday and have held the position overnight thrice and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17534.60 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2098.22 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.36 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.36 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated October 17, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains neutral. I expect the market to have a severe selloff sometime relatively soon – but not yet. As described in the October monthly TOT, a non-economic catalyst will most likely be the driver behind such a reversal in the market, and the timing of such a catalyst is not possible at the present time. The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short from SPX 2576. Maintain the protective buy stop on the position at a breakeven SPX 2576.
If not stopped out:
On the close, if the SPX is down on the day, take your profit on the position.
On the close, if the SPX is up on the day but below 2560, take your profit on half the position.
On the close, if the SPX is above 2560, hold the position overnight again.
I don’t know if I will be able to send out a message Thursday night, but if not, then I will Friday morning. If I am unable to send a message prior to Friday’s opening, and if you are still long all or part of the position, then hold the position with the SPX 2576 stop until I can send a message.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again as per the previous paragraph – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.