This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, October 22, 2009.
The SPX declined 9.66 points yesterday to close at 1081.40 with all of the decline occurring during a sharp selloff in the last hour. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1094.67 on Friday and took a small profit earlier in the day at SPX 1092.
The SPX-based daily model is neutral today. However, my NASDAQ model indicates the probability of a decline in the early going. It also indicates that if we don’t decline in the early going, a strong rally is the most likely probability later on in the day. So we will stand aside for the time being.
If the NASDAQ 100 Index ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^NDX ) is up on the day at 10:45, I would go long, and I suggest a 200% SPX long position at the market at that time with a 10 point protective sell stop. In that case, and if still long as we approach the close, sell out the position on the close. On the other hand, if the NDX.X is down at 10:45, I’d remain on the sidelines.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of tomorrow’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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