This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, October 20, 2011.
The SPX declined 15.50 points yesterday to close at 1209.88. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1202 on Tuesday and took profits near the high of the day yesterday at SPX 1223.46.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12603.83 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 750.95 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 16.78 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, it is quite possible that it has already ended, the major doubt factors being the upcoming presidential election, the European debt crisis, and the Congressional budget battles), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish.
While we did not go short the SPX yesterday after taking long-side profits, on my 10:45 intraday message, I said, “Unofficially, I would go short the NASDAQ 100,” and those subscribers who did so fared very well.
We have an interesting situation today. The daily model is very bullish, but the NASDAQ 100 model is modestly bearish! In the absence of unexpected news, I believe we will see the SPX advance. I simply don’t have a strong opinion how the NASDAQ 100 will respond to such an advance.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long (I’d suggest a bigger position were it not for the bearish NASDAQ reading) at SPX 1210 stop. If the SPX declines to 1206 before reaching 1210, lower your entry level buy stop to SPX 1208. And for each additional 2 point decline, lower your entry level buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position. If still long as we approach the close, sell the position on the close. FURTHERMORE, it is almost a certainty that the daily model will be bearish on Friday, and there is a decent chance of a big gap down Friday morning. Therefore, TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at the market on Thursday’s close and carry that position overnight and into Friday.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2011 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.