This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, October 18, 2007.
The SPX advanced 2.71 points yesterday to close at 1541.24. While the daily model was correct in its bullishness, TOT daily traders were stopped out of a 300% long position early in the day with a 10 point loss per unit.
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 11 of the past 15 weeks and are still slightly ahead of the game so far this week.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9906.09 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1082.31 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.15 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish.
I’m often asked, “Why should I use your management services and pay a 2% per annum management fee when I can simply follow your TOT recommendations?” Yesterday provides a superb answer: TOT, while an excellent service, is limited to the SPX (and for a variety of reasons I’m keeping it that way) while Program B is unlimited, and Program D uses only the Rydex NASDAQ 100 2x Strategy and Rydex Inverse NASDAQ 100 2x Strategy Funds. Coming into yesterday, Program D was 100% in the 2x Strategy fund and took full advantage of the 1.3% gain in the NASDAQ 100, for a net gain on the day of 2.6%. Program B came into the day 75% long the Rydex NASDAQ 100 2x Strategy Fund and 25% long the INVERSE S&P 2x Strategy Fund. In essence, Program B was 50% long the NASDAQ fund and 50% hedged, long NASDAQ and short the SPX. The net result yesterday for Program B was therefore a very healthy 1.9% profit. So while TOT is, both subjectively and objectively, vastly superior to most other timing services, it doesn’t hold a candle to what can be accomplished in a managed account. For Disclosure Documents of all my managed accounts, please go to www.DanielTurov.com and click on “Disclosure Documents”. OK, the commercial is over.
The daily model is slightly bearish today. Some modest profit taking is likely. TOT daily traders are currently on the sidelines and I recommend that they stay there. Volatility risk is too high to warrant any position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.